Looking at the development of 2019 by the 2018 city distribution
Source: billion euros
Today's traditional city-owned enterprises have already faced all sides. Some companies are still touting China's urban distribution with a trillion-dollar urban distribution market. In fact, this market has already been cut and cut, but in every segment of retail sales. Only.
In 2018, the new retail fully penetrated the Chinese business economy. In the twinkling of an eye, the single online e-commerce model entered the past tense, and the new retail became a new commercial format.
The fact is that the rise of each new business ecosystem is the transformation and reconstruction of the post-service ecology after 1-2 years. From today's trend, the new business behind the new retail is forced to face a new round of reshuffle in traditional e-commerce warehouses, traditional express delivery companies, and traditional urban supermarkets.
From the development history of urban distribution segmentation, China's urban distribution has undergone three changes in the past 20 years. Every change is due to the transformation of commercial development that forces the transformation of urban distribution. Of course, every change is At the same time that a large number of enterprises are eliminated, a new commercial enterprise is also bred.
First, the three eras of Chinese urban distribution
1. The traditional B2B era:
The traditional B2B Shangchao era was in the period from 2000 to 2007. At that time, the distribution enterprises in major cities focused on the logistics distribution of Shangchao, and achieved the city distribution enterprises in various cities. Unfortunately, there was no capital integration at that time. There is no national network thinking, it is completely independent.
2. E-commerce logistics era:
The e-commerce era began to erupt completely after 2007: In 2008, Liu Qiangdong began to invest heavily in warehousing and logistics, and established a self-operated distribution team in Jingdong; “Three Links and One†began to sprout, laying out the city express network; before 2013, Ali’s logistics It is also called "Taobao Grand Logistics". In 2013, the rookie network was officially launched. From the 7-11 years ago, the double 11 squadrons tactical response, to today's intelligent, unmanned multi-scene applications. The e-commerce era has made the transformation of urban distribution: First, the achievement of the express delivery network; second, the achievement of the landing distribution network.
3, "Internet + logistics" sharing crowdsourcing era:
From the budding of the new business of “Internet + Logistics†in 2014 to the industry bubble in 2015 (the entrepreneurs swarmed, the general trend of investors), and then the industry reshuffle in 2016-2017. There have been a few "Internet + Logistics" platforms that have been dead. As for those who are dead, I will not list them here, lest I say that I am going to sin.
After the city distribution shuffle in the era of "Internet + Logistics", the following categories are now left:
Platform class: cargo pull, cloud bird, 58 speed, etc.;
Share crowdsourcing: Flash, Meituan, hungry, point me, etc.
In 2017, new retail sales were in full swing, and new retail sales in 2018 were fully infiltrated. In the second half of 2018, urban distribution in the new retail era is facing a new revolution.
So, what about urban distribution in the new retail era?
Second, the 2018 Chinese urban distribution of the four sides of the song
Start with a few hot events:
Event 1: On July 13, 58 Express completed the financing of 250 million US dollars, led by Huaxin Investment, rookie, Sino-Russian Fund, Hongrun Capital, Qianhaimu Fund and parent company to the group to vote.....trend Look, the capital has begun to stand up!
Event 2: On July 11, the rookie network announced that it will become the controlling shareholder of the largest real-time logistics platform with crowdsourcing business and other business resources and 290 million US dollars in cash strategic investment. This is by far the largest investment in the field of real-time logistics in China.
Event 3: On March 12th, the rookie network deeply integrated five field distribution companies, namely Vientiane, Shengbang, Dongjun, Sesame Kaimen and Huangmajia. After the integration of five distribution companies, it became “Hangzhou Handing House Technology Co., Ltd. " Insiders revealed that this is called "new alliance."
Event 4: On February 27th, Ali bought all the shares of Hungry for 9.5 billion.
Event 5: On February 14, Jingdong Logistics received 2.5 billion US dollars of financing, with a valuation of 13.4 billion US dollars, becoming the largest single financing for China's logistics.
From the above big events and the industry's 2018 dynamics, we can gain insight into the trend of urban distribution in the new retail format:
(1) Integrated collection of national landing facilities
The big e-commerce and new retail platforms, led by Ali + rookie, began to integrate and integrate high-quality urban distribution network resources. The purpose is at least a few:
1. The city network with the previous investment will be networked into alliances (Vientiane, Shan State, Dongjun, etc.), and the combined traffic will be integrated into an independent city distribution and listing entity. This system will more effectively serve the new retail strategy after logistics, not only for the traditional Tmall, cat super service, but also upgrade the original fast delivery package mode to a new retail distribution team, for retail and other new retail scenes service;
2. The new urban distribution integration will shuffle the urban distribution enterprises that are not doing much and are unwilling to be integrated and integrated;
3. Technological change: Urban distribution will enter the technical transformation and upgrading, and upgrade the original human-sea tactics to intelligent technology and unmanned operation;
4, forced the traditional express delivery enterprise transformation and upgrading: If the traditional express delivery enterprise does not accelerate the upgrade, the business will naturally be replaced by the new urban distribution network, that is, the "backbone network + urban cloud warehouse + new allotment" mode.
(II) Jingdong self-built logistics platform is gradually opening
The full opening of Jingdong Logistics will undoubtedly have a huge impact on urban distribution.
Jingdong has a mature urban distribution operation management system. The network that was built in the north in the early days was quite mature. It is difficult to have a city-owned enterprise in the technical system, plus Jingdong’s own business flow. The opening of Jingdong Logistics has a huge impact on the field of urban distribution.
(3) The killing of the Internet + city distribution platform: cargo pull, 58 speed, cloud bird, etc.
It is unceremonious to say that the current "Internet + city distribution" platform is running out of nothing, the greatness of life, the glory of death. After a bubble ebb, the nude swimming will naturally be shuffled.
1. On July 13, 58 Express completed the financing of 250 million US dollars, led by Huaxin Investment, rookie, Sino-Russian Fund, Hongrun Capital, Qianhaimu Fund and parent company to the family. This is an industry integration team.
2. The cargo puller completed the C round of financing in 2017, and Lei Jun’s Shunwei Capital also participated in it;
3. Yunbird completed the D round of financing in 2017, and Huaping, Jingwei and Jinshajiang participated in the investment.
At present, there are no more latecomers after the three giants. The Internet + city distribution platform is basically a foregone conclusion. In the end, whoever can go to the end will see who has a strong foundation and who has strong back-office support.
(4) The entry of new energy vehicle operation platform: Panda New Energy, Ground Iron, etc.
New energy vehicles, by reason, have no direct relationship with urban distribution logistics. Traditional thinking is only a supplier of transportation tools. However, it is affected by modes such as shared travel and shared bicycles. The traditional new energy automobile factory + operation platform + financial institution + urban logistics market has formed a new business ecology that is about to be fissile. This ecology is not a business. This ecology is a combination of enterprises.
Imagine if one day: the individual driver of the city does not need to buy a car, and directly drives the business on the new energy vehicle platform. All the goods dispatching, vehicle road rights, supporting charging and other services are provided by the back office, and the supply is also directly related to the new energy vehicle. Strategic cooperation. In this way, where should traditional urban distribution companies go?
(5) Comprehensive integration of crowdsourcing logistics: Hungry, point me, US group, flash....
Crowdsourcing logistics is a market segment that has been neglected by express delivery companies such as “Three Links and One†and SF Express. In the past three years, it has flourished and formed a new force for urban distribution. Flash, is the representative of the same city express; hungry hummingbird, point I, the US group is the representative of the last one kilometer end crowdsourcing. Looking at the future trend, opening up to socialization will consume more market share in urban distribution.
(6) Competitive upgrade of large-scale logistics distribution: Rishun, Gome Anxun, Debon Express, SF Heavy Goods, Jingdong Logistics
Large-scale logistics has not been valued in the past. On the one hand, e-commerce express delivery companies are used to doing small things. The small piece has a high profit, the distribution operation is difficult, and the versatility is strong, and any courier can do it. With the increasing demand for home appliances, kitchen and bathroom, home improvement, and new retail stores, LTL companies and new express delivery companies are beginning to pack large-scale logistics.
Rishun is a typical enterprise that transforms from Haier's internal contract logistics to large-scale logistics;
Gome Anxun and Jingdong Logistics are typical retail e-commerce platform transformation layout large-scale logistics;
Debon Express, SF Heavy Goods, Express Express, etc., are typical enterprises from the LTL express to the bulky goods flow layout.
Looking at the future trend, large-scale logistics will become an independent branch. The large-scale logistics has its own unique characteristics, which will involve the delivery and integration, as well as special post-services, which will become a new competitive field for urban distribution.
(7) Shangchaocheng has been stationed in succession: several business owners are too familiar and inconvenient to nominate
Shangchao Logistics is China's oldest city distribution logistics. I personally took root in the city distribution center in 2014-2015, and I did logistics distribution, route optimization and load optimization in Shanghai's more than 3,000 stores. At that time, the city distribution realized the logistics intensive of many brands.
Today, Shangchao has already stood up in the form of investment for high-quality distribution companies. If you do well, I will invest in you. If I invest in you, you should not go to the service with the competitors, otherwise my business will not do it for you. This is the status quo of the business team of Shangchao Logistics, so that the local business super logistics has to be compromised.
Comprehensive analysis: Today's traditional city-owned enterprises have faced all sides of the game. Some companies are still touting China's urban distribution with a trillion-dollar urban distribution market. In fact, this market has already been cut and cut, but only in every segment of retail sales. The lips and teeth fight for it.
Third, the future of urban distribution, who is ups and downs?
Internet business has a fixed rule, the first half of the bubble, the second half of the reshuffle integration. In the bubble period, capital, capital, entrepreneurs, industry giants, cross-border fields and so on. When it comes to the second half, who can survive, we must consider the following aspects:
(1) Who is the source of the goods?
Whoever has the source of supply, who has the right to speak.
1. Ali and JD have the sovereignty of new retail goods, so their integration ability will be further increased;
2, the US group, hungry, and other crowdsourcing platforms, they seized the control of the order in the upstream, will continue to control this segment of retail and continue to innovate;
3, cargo pull, 58 speed, Yun bird and other enterprises, as a third-party resource docking and data operation platform, relying solely on technology to control the entire business, in fact, it is difficult. The future path will surely extend from the "fast train"-based platform to the "special car" service. If you do not make a self-built, self-controlled vehicle operating system, it is difficult to obtain approval from upstream sources. Another direction is to infiltrate the second, third and fourth tier cities, because the competition in the first-tier cities has become fierce, and the path to be taken is the strategy of rural encircling the cities.
4. The traditional supermarket has the main body of supply, and the integration of urban distribution will continue to infiltrate from the investment perspective. If you want to survive and develop in a traditional distribution company, the shipper will wean you, and your business will collapse, so it is a last resort.
5, large-scale logistics with the same rationality, logistics platform without supply, alone to collect goods, will face enormous challenges. For example, the big pieces such as Rishun, Gome Anshun and Jingdong Logistics will be very successful.
(2) Can you really make a big market with only technology?
Many people have asked me this question. My point is: China's logistics in the Internet and mobile Internet era cannot be separated from technology. But technology alone can penetrate an industry, especially the logistics industry, which is nonsense. For example: Jingdong bought several companies' software on the early warehousing and logistics system, and after the late stage, Jingdong's own hardware and software technology team independently built XYZ and other technical teams, and now in continuous iteration and upgrade, far away Far from opening a company that once provided Jingdong with peripheral technical services.
Therefore, it is basically impossible to rely on technology to be able to succeed in a single unicorn in an industry. Especially in the field of logistics, technology is just a tool. Anyone who brags about technology in front of me can get through an industry, and I will throw a word directly: Go and do it!
(3) How does the capital receive the game in the second half?
From the investment bubble of Internet logistics in the past three years to today, capital investment in logistics has become more and more rational. It can be seen from several dimensions:
1. There are fewer and fewer angels in the early days. Basically, angel investors will not invest in logistics, because this is a long-term investment in heavy assets and heavy manpower. Most of the capital is a fast-moving thinking.
2. Industrial investment has gradually become the mainstream, and traditional PE and VC have slowly abandoned this field. Typical industries are classified as: Ali Cabbage, ProLogis, Shunfeng, Jingdong, and others do not have much heavy capital alone in a logistics company.
So how will capital be integrated in the future of urban distribution?
1. Ali's collection and integration is a foregone conclusion: new alliance, hungry, point to me, box horse delivery, etc.;
2. In the socialization of Jingdong self-built logistics, Dada will be incorporated, and the distribution network of second- and third-tier cities may be incorporated in the future;
3, SF early collection of small red hats, Yin Jie and other city distribution enterprises, but unfortunately did not effectively seize the opportunity to integrate; follow-up contact Baidu take-out, and finally no results;
4. The ProLogis has also carried out a series of investment layouts, such as Hummer and Pony Volkswagen.
The future city distribution enterprises, without the capital of the station team, without the commercial backstage team, will soon die, do not believe that I first said here, everyone witness!
(4) What kind of urban distribution is needed for the new retail in the future?
Ali or Jingdong is worth mentioning. The core competitiveness of today's e-commerce platform is the supply chain. And what kind of urban distribution does the new retail (Jingdong-defined unbounded retail) need in the future?
Roland Berger: Evolution of Logistics Distribution Model under the New Retail Model
There are a few words in the new retail that everyone should remember:
1. A plate of goods: This is the hottest word in the 2018 rookie global wisdom logistics conference. The new retail is the supply chain coordination of the next line of online and online, and the commercial operation driven by the digital supply chain.
2, shop warehouse: This is the industry hot word that has just appeared recently, the store is both a warehouse and a warehouse can be a store. The new retail online drainage, offline experience, convenient home, shared crowdsourcing, store and warehouse retail and logistics functions invisibly achieve integration and intensive.
3, food and beverage retail: This is a typical feature of the box horse. Catering + the last mile of crowdsourcing, the hottest food and beverage retail scene of the 2018 World Cup is the business scene of crayfish. Order online, send it to the TV next to the TV, and eat crayfish while watching the ball.
So what kind of urban distribution companies do new retails need in the future?
The future business trend is S2b2c's new supply chain model, which was also proposed by Professor Lake University, which is from the perspective of business model. From the point of view of product circulation, I think it is F2b2c. The operation behind it will be the factory or farm producing area directly for the city distribution hub, and then directly from the city hub to the “store warehouseâ€. The middle goods are “one set of goods†online and offline. Sharing. Hou Yi has evaluated the difference between Box Horse Logistics and Jingdong Logistics in this year, as shown in the figure:
From the past thinking, this seems to be no different from the contract logistics period, direct delivery to the store. In fact, it is wrong, the difference is big? This has higher and higher requirements for the corresponding ability of logistics; and the demand for inventory sharing synergy is getting stronger and stronger; at this time, the business of “store warehouse†is far more than the distribution of goods in the contract logistics period. The complexity is high; at the same time, these goods are not waiting for sales at the end, but fast consumption turnover.
In the future, urban distribution companies should quickly understand the business logic of new retail distribution, or try water as soon as possible, so that you will not be eliminated by new businesses.
(5) There is still a chance in the vertical field
If the city distribution company does not have the backstage of Ali Jingdong, there is no big capital to pour. I suggest that you do vertical, don't be big and big, big and all you can't do with others. I suggest that you do similar cold chain city distribution, pharmaceutical city distribution, catering central kitchen city distribution, home distribution, etc., these areas still have opportunities for development. The beard's eyebrows caught, and eventually did not build a moat, and finally killed himself.
Regarding the future development trend of new retail cities, we can refer to these directions:
1, no business flow, no logistics. Without the right to speak, the integration of all logistics companies is to eat blood on the cutting edge, and will soon be killed.
2. In the next three years, the commercial competition of China's logistics industry will be an absolute ecological competition. It is difficult to gain a firm foothold in a single business field and a region.
3, the use of technology integration business era has ended, the new business era must be the organic integration of online and offline, any logistics platform, alone on the line can not play.
4. The new era of urban distribution will be a new industry ecology. The future urban distribution ecological scene may be a mature hub + community cloud warehouse (store warehouse) + new energy + financing lease + sharing economy + everyone entrepreneurship + big data Driven by the new business format.
Every new business revolution will trigger a new logistics revolution in the next two years. Any business format is old and not new. The real scenery is in the days when the sun sets and the sunset changes. Regarding the new round of urban reshuffle, it is a danger. It is only the opportunity to read the opportunity ahead of time and become the owner of the opportunity. This era is an era of testing the agility of an enterprise, agile transformation and upgrading, agile card business opportunities, and agile organizational changes. In the future, urban distribution, intelligence, new energy, and digitalization are major trends. We will wait and see!
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
Proofreading: Ge Hongyan
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