The rise of northern thermal coal is obviously weak in the southern market
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
The supply of production was blocked and coal production continued to tighten. As a result, coal prices in the main producing areas and northern ports began to rebound, with a range of 10-20/ton, but the inventory of downstream main power plants remained high, and the willingness to increase prices was not strong. In the case of sufficient supply, the price still has a small bearish expectation. On the whole, the southern and northern markets of thermal coal show a large trend difference.
Supply tightens the northern thermal coal market, the rise is obvious
Northern ports: This week, the northern port thermal coal market began to stabilize and stabilize, and the market sentiment turned better. Some traders began to tentatively raise their prices. Now Q5500 big card coal closing price is 605-610/ton, Q5000 big card coal closing price is 530-535/ton, the actual transaction volume is less.
Main origin: The price of many coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province has increased by 20-30/ton, and Inner Mongolia has increased slightly by 10-20/ton. The price increase is due to the tight coal source. On the other hand, after the 15th day of the first month, the downstream coal demand was released, followed by the mine disaster in Inner Mongolia. Traders worried that the coal production would be affected in the later period and began to actively purchase to boost coal prices.
Imported coal: Indonesia's 3,800 kcal coal boat type offer FOB36.5-37 US / ton, large ship FOB38 US / ton. Australia clearance time is about 30 days, 5500 kcal Australian coal FOB61.5-62 US / ton.
The main coal enterprises: the coal group announced the price of the long association from February 18 to 24, in which the price of the annual long association was unchanged from the previous period, and the price of the monthly long association was raised by 11-13/ton; the third spot sales price of Shenhua in February Rise 8-22/ton.
Power plant inventory maintains a high level of weakness in some parts of the South
In terms of downstream power plants: the daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal areas has risen to over 600,000 tons, but the overall inventory has remained at a high level and procurement enthusiasm is not high. Although the self-supplied power plants in northern enterprises have a bullish trend, but near the end of the heating season, the daily consumption of the main power plants in the north has shown a downward trend, and prices remain bearish.
Southwest market: Overall, the southwest market is relatively sluggish. The inventory of power plants in Sichuan remained at a high level, and the downstream industrial enterprises were under-employed. At present, the daily consumption of coal in Guang'an Power Plant is about 8,000 tons, and the overall inventory is 1.2 million tons. The daily consumption of the power plant is 9,000 tons, and the overall inventory is more than 600,000 tons. It consumes about 7,000 tons, and the available days of inventory are at a high level of about 50 days. Moreover, at present, most of the power plants still have implementation of the North Coal contract, and the inventory is continuing to rise. Under the background of sufficient supply, the market bearish expectations are strong, and the local coal price is mainly stabilized. Up to now, the coal inventory in Guizhou area is about 5.26 million tons, up 3 million tons compared with the same period of last year. The high enthusiasm for purchasing power plants under high inventory is not high, which has suppressed local coal prices. At the same time, industry insiders said that coal production in Bijie Prefecture has risen sharply from the previous period, at around 42%, of which Bijie's output accounted for nearly half of Guizhou's total supply, and coal supply as a whole showed a loose trend.
Supply tightens but insufficient demand
The coal mine resumed production slowly and production was blocked. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued a notice on the inspection of coal mine safety production in the first half of 2019. The key content is about the inspection and acceptance of the resumption of labor after the "two sessions" and the Spring Festival. At the same time, the Yijin Huoluoqi Coal Bureau requested that the safety inspection of the whole flag coal enterprises should be carried out from February 25 to March 25, and the coal mine enterprises should be self-inspected and self-inspected. All coal companies carry out major inspections in a manner that is carried out. Coal yards and container stations are also within the scope of inspection, and coal production enterprises with incomplete procedures and safety hazards will face the risk of production suspension. After the Spring Festival holiday, the coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province were difficult to resume work, and the coal mine operating rate remained at a low level. At present, the first batch of coal mines that have resumed work have not yet fully resumed production. Under the influence of the Inner Mongolia mine disaster, the review of the resumption of production and acceptance is more stringent, and some coal mines The initiative to suspend production and self-inspection, the private mine recovery period will be postponed until after the "two sessions."
In terms of downstream enterprises, although the daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal areas has increased, the overall inventory has remained at a high level and procurement enthusiasm is not high. After the holiday, although the daily consumption of coastal power plants gradually recovered, as of February 27, the coal reserves of the six major power plants in the coastal areas were 16.9922 million tons, and the daily consumption was 668,200 tons, which was 25.43 days. Under the influence of high inventory and bearish expectations, power plant procurement is not motivated and continues to suppress coal prices.
On the whole, the current production area is facing the phenomenon of resumption of work and the continuous expansion of production area. The increase in coal production in the later period is limited. In March, the demand for industrial coal may increase, but near the end of the northern heating season, thermal coal demand will decline. In the later period, the supply is insufficient, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the coal price of coal enterprises and Beigang port may increase, but the downstream power plant price is obvious, and the upstream and downstream price games will continue to increase.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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