The pros and cons of the data are the same, the furniture industry business opportunities and traps coexist
2023-06-20 21:08:48
On January 21, the National Bureau of Statistics released a bunch of data reflecting the economic and social aspects of China's operations in 2018. Behind these data are hidden many important information about the development of the furniture industry. From these data, we can find out the major business opportunities for the development of China's furniture industry in 2019, and also indicate the trap of the future, which should be circumvented.
Business opportunity
The announcement of the 2018 National Annual Report of the Chinese Economy and Society shows that the Chinese economy has made great progress in 2018 and is full of energy. The optimistic view of the Chinese economy is entirely justified.
First, the total amount of the economy exceeded 90 trillion yuan for the first time. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar on January 21 is equal to 6.78 yuan, it is about 13.28 trillion US dollars, which is about 68% of the total economic volume of the United States in 2017. %.
?? Do not underestimate this number. The rapid growth of China’s economic aggregate is the most taboo in the United States and the main reason for the Sino-US trade war. The Sino-US trade issue is still in difficult negotiations, and I wonder if the announcement of this data will have a negative impact on the negotiation process.
Second, the people’s income has grown rapidly. Among them, the nominal income of urban residents increased by 7.8%, and the income of rural residents increased by 8.8%. The median income of workers was 24,336 yuan, an increase of 8.6%. Both urban residents and rural residents have achieved significant growth in income. The increase in the median income reflects the growth of the majority of workers' income.
Third, both urban residents and rural residents dare to consume, and the growth of total and per capita consumption is fast and stable. Last year, urban residents' consumption increased by 6.8%, per capita consumption reached 26,112 yuan; rural residents' consumption increased by 10.7%, and per capita consumption expenditure was 12,124 yuan. The growth rate of consumption has accelerated compared to 2017.
?? Economic aggregate data, income data, consumption data show that the development of the furniture industry is good. First of all, the economic situation is still on the rise channel, there is no factor that drags down the development of the industry; secondly, the income of the people increases year by year, and the consumption increases rapidly. Both urban residents and rural residents are daring to consume. There is no such thing as having money and only not using it.
?? The big development environment is good, it depends on how the furniture enterprises create their own small environment and form their own benign development channel.
Trap
?? We can not talk about development, blindly optimistic, big on the fast, paving the stalls, set the goal of high. In fact, in the same report, if you pay attention to some data, if you study it carefully, you will not set too high a development goal, but will act cautiously and develop steadily step by step.
First, the working-age population (16 to 59 years old) broke through the 900 million mark for the first time and fell to 897.29 million. Compared with the 90,199,000 in 2017, the working-age population in 2018 has dropped by 4.7 million. In an article published in November 2018, the author predicted that the number of working-age populations in the country would be no less than 2.95 million in 2018, and the actual figure was 1.75 million. This is somewhat unexpected. This is the seventh consecutive year of decline in the working-age population since the first drop of 3.45 million in 2012. The total number of declines has reached more than 28 million. This is the main reason why the labor market is hard to find.
Second, the elderly society has arrived quickly. In 2018, the number of elderly people over the age of 60 in China has reached 249 million, and Chinese society is rapidly aging. The production capacity and consumption capacity of the elderly are significantly weakened, consumption is increasingly dependent on young people, and China’s consumption structure will obviously change accordingly.
Third, the birth population fell by 2 million from the previous year. The number of people born in 2017 was 17.23 million, and the number of people born in 2018 was 15.23 million, a total reduction of 2 million. The problem of showing that the Chinese are unwilling to give birth and can not afford to live is outstanding. Low birth rates will have long-term adverse effects on future economic development, and furniture companies should obviously make plans for such prospects.
?? Comprehensive information on a series of data in the 2018 National Annual Report, the author believes that the development opportunities of furniture companies are clearly there, that is, increase brand investment, increase design investment, increase investment in innovation, in stock, increase Find new customers on the market. Although the number of core consumer groups has been declining, due to rising prices and economic development, the total consumption is still expanding, and the business opportunities for development are absolutely there.
In view of the decline in the labor force, the reduction of newborns, the arrival of the elderly society, the idea of ​​furniture companies making a big deal is a bit out of place. Difficulties must be considered adequately. It is necessary to see the long-term development trend of the population. The plan to expand the scale, especially the rapid and large-scale development, must be cautious and careful not to fall into the trap of blind development.
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