Soda ash prices in glass bottles keep rising
2024-05-14 12:06:46
Since the second half of last year, the price of soda ash has risen sharply in most parts of the country. Currently, the mainstream factory prices in all regions are between RMB 2000 and RMB 2,100/tonne (lightweight), compared with the RMB 1600/tonne (light) mainstream factory prices in September last year. %the above. Rising costs and tight supply are the direct reasons for the rise in soda ash prices. The increase in prices in the past one or two months is mainly caused by rising costs of energy and raw salt. The situation of tight supply in the first half of this year will continue. With the gradual release of soda ash production capacity in the second half of this year, prices may slowly decline, but they will be supported by costs and the decline rate will be relatively limited. With the oil price breaking the historical high, a series of energy prices began to be driven up. As the main component of the cost of soda ash, the price of coal, steam, etc. has also been rising. With the general increase in the prices of raw salt and limestone, soda ash has also entered. In the high-cost era, in the context of strong demand from downstream industries, the shift to downstream costs has become the most effective and the only way.
From a global perspective, due to continued zero growth and negative growth in Europe and the United States and other countries, the increase in soda ash in recent years has basically come from Asia, especially the Chinese market. Since this year, China’s production capacity increase is concentrated in the second half of the year, and the real conversion into products You need to wait for a period of time, which directly leads to the current tight demand for soda ash, and the current high prices are supported.
The United States has excellent natural alkaloids, low cost, and strong competitiveness. However, the high sea-freight price limits its global monopoly development. The BDI index shows that the current dry bulk market is in a period of high oscillation and there is still room for further rise in ocean freight in the future.
The soda ash industry's general operating rate has reached more than 90%. Except for some relocated manufacturers, almost all major soda ash plants are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of downstream demand, soda ash companies are basically in short supply.
Affected by the broader market, the recent soda ash company's stock price has significantly retraced, and it can pay attention to the industry's high-quality enterprises with perfect industrial chain and cost advantages, and give “Sanyou Chemicals†a “careful overweight†rating.
Since the second half of last year, the domestic price of soda ash has risen sharply. The ex-factory price of mainstream light soda ash has increased from RMB 1,600/ton in September last year to RMB 2,050/ton currently, and the price increase rate has reached more than 25%. From the first quarter of this year, the price of light and heavy alkali in Shandong in early January was 1,950 yuan/ton and 2,050 yuan/ton; by mid-March, the price of light and heavy alkali was 2,100 yuan/ton and 2,200 yuan/ton. , rose about 150 yuan / ton.
In March, the mainstream factory prices in various regions ranged from RMB 2000 to RMB 2,100/tonne (light weight), while in the western Qinghai region, due to the remoteness, plus freight and other factors, the soda ash factory price was generally around RMB 1,700 (light weight). At present, soda ash enterprises in some regions have entered the traditional maintenance period, and most of them last for half a month to 20 days. It is expected that the tight supply will continue in the short term.
1.2. The increase in cost is one of the main factors driving the price increase. Generally speaking, the price of soda ash has a certain seasonality. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, it is the off-season sales season, and the price is relatively low. From the second quarter, soda ash prices began to rise until mid-year. With some manufacturers for equipment maintenance, soda ash prices will be relatively high. Since last winter, the price of soda ash did not drop seasonally, but instead entered an upward path. In addition to the strong demand, the continuous increase in production costs is also the main reason for the price increase. In addition, this year's snow disaster and other unconventional factors caused by poor transport also played a role in fueling.
From the perspective of the cost structure of soda ash, it mainly includes raw salt, limestone, coke, steam and electricity, plus labor, depreciation and transportation costs. At present, almost all raw material prices have entered a rising space. Some time ago, domestic coal supply was tight. Coal prices rose from the second half of last year to early March and reached 35% to 40%. The original salt prices are also accelerated due to the demand for two alkalis. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, there was a large increase, and the current mainstream price has reached 250 yuan/ton. Although the cost pressures have increased, due to the strong demand, most of the production facilities of the enterprises are still at full capacity, reflecting the good demand side and profitability of the current soda ash.
According to the basic cost of RMB 1,000/ton and the sales price of RMB 1,400/ton, a simple calculation is made. The gross profit margin of soda ash is most affected by the prices of steam and raw salt. Under the conditions of a 50% increase and a constant sales price, the overall gross profit will be affected. Interest rates reached 10% and 8% respectively. In order to maintain a high level of gross profit, in the current situation where downstream demand is relatively strong, soda ash companies generally raise the sales price has become an effective and the only way to transfer costs. In addition, unlike in previous years, the boom in the fertilizer industry has also led to a simultaneous increase in the price of ammonium chloride, stable supply and demand of ammonium chloride, tight supply in some areas, basically no inventory pressure, to some extent, reducing the general situation Subsoil alkali soda ash is negatively impacted by the increase in ammonium chloride inventory.
1.3. The snowstorm has caused traffic to be blocked, and exports have slightly rebounded. Since the second half of 2007, due to the reduction of export tax rebate rate, the export of soda ash has maintained a negative growth status. From the data of January of this year, the export situation has improved slightly. The year-on-year growth rate has recovered to around 1.1%. However, in the short term, the recovery in exports is likely to be affected by the snowstorm and the Spring Festival travel. Domestic traffic has been blocked, and coastal companies such as Shandong, Hebei and Tianjin have increased their overseas export volume. . According to customs statistics, there was almost no soda ash imports in January.
At present, from a global perspective, due to the continued zero growth and negative growth in Europe and the United States and other countries, the increase in soda ash production in recent years has basically come from Asia, especially the Chinese market. The only major project that can affect the global soda ash industry is Etisoda in Turkey. The 1 million tons/year plant, while the others are basically all less than 300,000 tons, will not pose a major impact, while the domestic capacity increase in 2008 alone may reach more than 3 million tons, which fully shows that the future soda industry will Focus on transferring to our country.
The quality of the United States' natural alkaloids is excellent, coupled with its low cost and strong competitiveness. However, the high price of ocean freight has limited its global monopolistic development. In order to achieve a win-win situation, domestic soda ash producers have taken a six-month meeting with the world's soda ash producers on the international market. The approach has reached the consensus that the United States natural alkaloids are mainly supplied to the European and American markets, and China's synthetic alkalis are mainly supplied to the Asian market. The spot price for soda ash in the Asian market is 270 to 330 US dollars per ton (CFR). After deducting the freight of about 20 US dollars/ton, it is converted into RMB 1800 to 2,200 yuan per ton, basically matching the domestic price. With the tight supply of sodium carbonate in the global market, the support for the currently high prices can be guaranteed.
1.4. Tighter supply indirectly affects downstream production growth rate The current soda ash industry's general operating rate has reached more than 90%. Except for some relocated manufacturers, almost all major alkali plants are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of downstream demand, basically Both have reached the level of supply shortage. The data show that the production growth of downstream major products has slowed down, and some of them have seen negative growth. This may be due to the shortage of raw materials and the lack of operating rate, which in turn has pushed the continuous rise in the price of soda ash. .
In the downstream industries of soda ash, glass accounted for about 42%. From the statistics of the first two months of this year, flat glass basically maintained a relatively high-speed development trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3%, which is basically equivalent to last year's level. However, the daily glass shows negative growth. Looking at the current situation, the glass industry has more new production capacity in 2007, plus the rapid pace of expansion in 2008 (there are more than 30 production lines currently under construction and planned to be built), and the flat glass industry is facing pressure for overcapacity growth. The growth rate may be subject to certain restrictions, but China’s demand for glass is still in a period of rapid growth, and it is expected that the demand growth of the Chinese market in the next two or three years will remain at around 10%.
In addition, after entering the domestic fertilizer production season, the country’s emphasis on agricultural economic development and strong investment in agricultural infrastructure have further increased the demand for soda ash. The growing market demand will also continue to drive soda ash market prices.
2. Investment advice The supply and demand of the soda ash industry is expected to remain slightly tight during the first half of this year. With the slow release of new capacity, the high price of soda ash will continue for a period of time (our January in-depth report "Benefits the downstream climate and saves energy. The integrated development "discussed this issue." It will gradually decline from the second half of the year to early 2009.
In the secondary market, the stocks of the soda ash company have also experienced significant corrections in recent days due to the broader market impact. Sanyou Chemicals, which has an advantageous industrial chain and has a cost advantage, is expected to receive EPS of 0.59 yuan and 0.89 yuan in 07 and 08 respectively. "Rating.
3. Risk reminding soda ash industry is a strong cyclical industry, is currently in the industry cycle, due to the small barriers to entry, with the gradual expansion of future capacity, especially in the second half of several projects in succession, the soda ash industry profitability will be affected .
The United States has abundant reserves of natural alkaloids and low cost. Ocean freight is its major constraint bottleneck. The uncertainty of the future shipping market will affect the degree of demand for domestic soda ash to some extent.
In the future, the gradual implementation of the domestic natural alkali market, especially the Tongbai trona project, will likely break the industry landscape.
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From a global perspective, due to continued zero growth and negative growth in Europe and the United States and other countries, the increase in soda ash in recent years has basically come from Asia, especially the Chinese market. Since this year, China’s production capacity increase is concentrated in the second half of the year, and the real conversion into products You need to wait for a period of time, which directly leads to the current tight demand for soda ash, and the current high prices are supported.
The United States has excellent natural alkaloids, low cost, and strong competitiveness. However, the high sea-freight price limits its global monopoly development. The BDI index shows that the current dry bulk market is in a period of high oscillation and there is still room for further rise in ocean freight in the future.
The soda ash industry's general operating rate has reached more than 90%. Except for some relocated manufacturers, almost all major soda ash plants are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of downstream demand, soda ash companies are basically in short supply.
Affected by the broader market, the recent soda ash company's stock price has significantly retraced, and it can pay attention to the industry's high-quality enterprises with perfect industrial chain and cost advantages, and give “Sanyou Chemicals†a “careful overweight†rating.
Since the second half of last year, the domestic price of soda ash has risen sharply. The ex-factory price of mainstream light soda ash has increased from RMB 1,600/ton in September last year to RMB 2,050/ton currently, and the price increase rate has reached more than 25%. From the first quarter of this year, the price of light and heavy alkali in Shandong in early January was 1,950 yuan/ton and 2,050 yuan/ton; by mid-March, the price of light and heavy alkali was 2,100 yuan/ton and 2,200 yuan/ton. , rose about 150 yuan / ton.
In March, the mainstream factory prices in various regions ranged from RMB 2000 to RMB 2,100/tonne (light weight), while in the western Qinghai region, due to the remoteness, plus freight and other factors, the soda ash factory price was generally around RMB 1,700 (light weight). At present, soda ash enterprises in some regions have entered the traditional maintenance period, and most of them last for half a month to 20 days. It is expected that the tight supply will continue in the short term.
1.2. The increase in cost is one of the main factors driving the price increase. Generally speaking, the price of soda ash has a certain seasonality. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, it is the off-season sales season, and the price is relatively low. From the second quarter, soda ash prices began to rise until mid-year. With some manufacturers for equipment maintenance, soda ash prices will be relatively high. Since last winter, the price of soda ash did not drop seasonally, but instead entered an upward path. In addition to the strong demand, the continuous increase in production costs is also the main reason for the price increase. In addition, this year's snow disaster and other unconventional factors caused by poor transport also played a role in fueling.
From the perspective of the cost structure of soda ash, it mainly includes raw salt, limestone, coke, steam and electricity, plus labor, depreciation and transportation costs. At present, almost all raw material prices have entered a rising space. Some time ago, domestic coal supply was tight. Coal prices rose from the second half of last year to early March and reached 35% to 40%. The original salt prices are also accelerated due to the demand for two alkalis. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, there was a large increase, and the current mainstream price has reached 250 yuan/ton. Although the cost pressures have increased, due to the strong demand, most of the production facilities of the enterprises are still at full capacity, reflecting the good demand side and profitability of the current soda ash.
According to the basic cost of RMB 1,000/ton and the sales price of RMB 1,400/ton, a simple calculation is made. The gross profit margin of soda ash is most affected by the prices of steam and raw salt. Under the conditions of a 50% increase and a constant sales price, the overall gross profit will be affected. Interest rates reached 10% and 8% respectively. In order to maintain a high level of gross profit, in the current situation where downstream demand is relatively strong, soda ash companies generally raise the sales price has become an effective and the only way to transfer costs. In addition, unlike in previous years, the boom in the fertilizer industry has also led to a simultaneous increase in the price of ammonium chloride, stable supply and demand of ammonium chloride, tight supply in some areas, basically no inventory pressure, to some extent, reducing the general situation Subsoil alkali soda ash is negatively impacted by the increase in ammonium chloride inventory.
1.3. The snowstorm has caused traffic to be blocked, and exports have slightly rebounded. Since the second half of 2007, due to the reduction of export tax rebate rate, the export of soda ash has maintained a negative growth status. From the data of January of this year, the export situation has improved slightly. The year-on-year growth rate has recovered to around 1.1%. However, in the short term, the recovery in exports is likely to be affected by the snowstorm and the Spring Festival travel. Domestic traffic has been blocked, and coastal companies such as Shandong, Hebei and Tianjin have increased their overseas export volume. . According to customs statistics, there was almost no soda ash imports in January.
At present, from a global perspective, due to the continued zero growth and negative growth in Europe and the United States and other countries, the increase in soda ash production in recent years has basically come from Asia, especially the Chinese market. The only major project that can affect the global soda ash industry is Etisoda in Turkey. The 1 million tons/year plant, while the others are basically all less than 300,000 tons, will not pose a major impact, while the domestic capacity increase in 2008 alone may reach more than 3 million tons, which fully shows that the future soda industry will Focus on transferring to our country.
The quality of the United States' natural alkaloids is excellent, coupled with its low cost and strong competitiveness. However, the high price of ocean freight has limited its global monopolistic development. In order to achieve a win-win situation, domestic soda ash producers have taken a six-month meeting with the world's soda ash producers on the international market. The approach has reached the consensus that the United States natural alkaloids are mainly supplied to the European and American markets, and China's synthetic alkalis are mainly supplied to the Asian market. The spot price for soda ash in the Asian market is 270 to 330 US dollars per ton (CFR). After deducting the freight of about 20 US dollars/ton, it is converted into RMB 1800 to 2,200 yuan per ton, basically matching the domestic price. With the tight supply of sodium carbonate in the global market, the support for the currently high prices can be guaranteed.
1.4. Tighter supply indirectly affects downstream production growth rate The current soda ash industry's general operating rate has reached more than 90%. Except for some relocated manufacturers, almost all major alkali plants are operating at full capacity. From the perspective of downstream demand, basically Both have reached the level of supply shortage. The data show that the production growth of downstream major products has slowed down, and some of them have seen negative growth. This may be due to the shortage of raw materials and the lack of operating rate, which in turn has pushed the continuous rise in the price of soda ash. .
In the downstream industries of soda ash, glass accounted for about 42%. From the statistics of the first two months of this year, flat glass basically maintained a relatively high-speed development trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3%, which is basically equivalent to last year's level. However, the daily glass shows negative growth. Looking at the current situation, the glass industry has more new production capacity in 2007, plus the rapid pace of expansion in 2008 (there are more than 30 production lines currently under construction and planned to be built), and the flat glass industry is facing pressure for overcapacity growth. The growth rate may be subject to certain restrictions, but China’s demand for glass is still in a period of rapid growth, and it is expected that the demand growth of the Chinese market in the next two or three years will remain at around 10%.
In addition, after entering the domestic fertilizer production season, the country’s emphasis on agricultural economic development and strong investment in agricultural infrastructure have further increased the demand for soda ash. The growing market demand will also continue to drive soda ash market prices.
2. Investment advice The supply and demand of the soda ash industry is expected to remain slightly tight during the first half of this year. With the slow release of new capacity, the high price of soda ash will continue for a period of time (our January in-depth report "Benefits the downstream climate and saves energy. The integrated development "discussed this issue." It will gradually decline from the second half of the year to early 2009.
In the secondary market, the stocks of the soda ash company have also experienced significant corrections in recent days due to the broader market impact. Sanyou Chemicals, which has an advantageous industrial chain and has a cost advantage, is expected to receive EPS of 0.59 yuan and 0.89 yuan in 07 and 08 respectively. "Rating.
3. Risk reminding soda ash industry is a strong cyclical industry, is currently in the industry cycle, due to the small barriers to entry, with the gradual expansion of future capacity, especially in the second half of several projects in succession, the soda ash industry profitability will be affected .
The United States has abundant reserves of natural alkaloids and low cost. Ocean freight is its major constraint bottleneck. The uncertainty of the future shipping market will affect the degree of demand for domestic soda ash to some extent.
In the future, the gradual implementation of the domestic natural alkali market, especially the Tongbai trona project, will likely break the industry landscape.
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Furthermore,our gaming tables come with features that enhance gameplay, such as recessed playing areas or padded surfaces. These elements provide a stable and comfortable surface for cards, miniatures, or game pieces, preventing them from sliding or getting damaged during gameplay.
Lastly, our gaming tables can also serve as a social hub for game nights or gatherings. The dedicated space and comfortable seating encourage players to gather around the table, fostering social interaction and creating memorable gaming experiences.
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