Analysis of the environment and development trend of China's furniture industry in 2010-2013
3. Forecast of China's furniture market development in 2011-2013
(1) Influencing factors
1. Financial and monetary policy
On April 5, 2011, the People's Bank of China announced in the evening that the benchmark interest rate for RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions will be raised from April 6, 2011. Among them, the one-year deposit and loan benchmark interest rates of financial institutions were raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans of other grades and the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans were adjusted accordingly. This is the second time the central bank raised interest rates this year and the fourth time since last year. The interest rate hike on home buyers is further widened. This interest rate hike, the loan interest rate for five years or more has risen to 6.80%, which means that if it is a commercial loan of 1 million yuan, if the mortgage rate is 20 years according to the benchmark interest rate, the monthly supply will need 7633 yuan, an increase of 118 yuan, and the total interest will be The increase of 803,500 yuan to 832,000 yuan. Provident fund loans, this year's loan interest rate increased to 4.70%, also calculated according to the above-mentioned million mortgage mortgage 20-year mortgage, the monthly monthly increase after the interest rate increase of 109 yuan, while the total interest increased by 260,000 yuan. This year's second rate hike, and the possibility of further interest rate hikes in the market outlook, the home market will suffer sales resistance, the furniture market also has such concerns.
2. Real estate policy
The “water volume†upstream of the property has plummeted, and the furniture industry has also exploded. The latest statistics show that as of December 31, the volume of real estate transactions in Beijing in 2010 was about 100,000 sets, and the total number of commercial housing transactions in Beijing in 2009 was about 190,000 sets. After halving, the “Red Five†and “Golden September and Silver 10â€, which were extremely popular in the past, were all eclipsed in 2010. But affordable housing will bring warmth to the furniture industry. The former Secretary-General of the China Furniture Association, Cao Yingchao, said that China will build 36 million affordable housing units within five years. According to the calculation of 10,000 yuan for each set of furniture, it will generate a market of 360 billion yuan. This is still a conservative figure. Many families who live in affordable housing may spend between 20,000 and 30,000 yuan on furniture. China's ongoing construction of affordable housing will bring huge business opportunities to the furniture industry and promote the standardization and scale development of the industry.
3. Forestry policy
In the entire industrial chain of forestry, furniture as the final product, is in the downstream of the industrial chain, and is a very valuable and leading role. China's per capita forest resources are scarce and the state's restrictions on deforestation are becoming more and more strict. Many domestic furniture companies have to import large quantities of timber from overseas. At present, China is the world's largest importer of industrial logs. According to data released by the State Forestry Administration, the gap between China's timber supply and demand in 2015 will reach 200 million cubic meters. However, in the international market, more and more countries pay more attention to the protection of forest resources, reduce the export volume of wood, limit or even prohibit the export of wood. For example, in July 2007, Russia raised its export tariff on timber to 10% and not less than 6 Euro/m3, resulting in a rapid decline in exports. In the future, the timber industry will be further in short supply, and price increases are imperative. The rise in raw materials will increase the cost pressure of Chinese furniture companies.
4. Foreign brand competition
International furniture brands cut into the Chinese market, generally taking the general agent system, this sales model limits the extensive contact between furniture and consumers, a little hang up and sell high-end feeling. Therefore, its operating rights are significantly greater than the weight of the market, and its products are enjoyed by top Chinese wealthy families or related institutions. However, this model has the purpose of testing water by well-known brands. Now, some international brands are looking at China's huge mid- to high-end market potential and decided to build their own sales channels. At the Houjie International Furniture Fair, ASHLEY, the first American furniture brand, released its strategic plan to fully develop the domestic sales market. In the next few years, the company will construct a mixed sales channel featuring model-operated stores in Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first-tier cities. Although the foreign brand has the highest probability of targeting the middle and high end, its impact on the market is comprehensive. In the face of foreign brands, technology, and capital advantages, the existing mid-to-high-end market in China will be cut. In order to survive, it is possible for medium and high-end brands to move downwards, which will inevitably provoke competition in the furniture market as a whole.
(II) Economic forecast
1. Scale prediction
After more than 20 years of rapid development, the Chinese furniture industry has become the largest furniture manufacturing country in the world. However, we believe that the Chinese furniture industry is still in the middle and late stages of rapid growth. In terms of industry scale development, in the past three years, the industry's gross domestic product and sales value of the furniture industry continued to grow at a rate of more than 15%. The demand outlook for the industry is still broad. In the next 3-5 years, the furniture industry still has a large room for growth.
2. Export market forecast
From the perspective of export markets, China's furniture industry has entered a mature stage. The probability of continuing to expand the export market at a high speed is relatively low. Traditional export markets, such as the United States, Europe and Japan, will enter a relatively stable phase. Other emerging markets can bring growth, but absolute demand is relatively small.
3. Domestic market forecast
The domestic market is still in the stage of rapid development. Before 2008, the furniture industry as a whole was export-oriented, and the growth rate of export volume was much higher than that of the industry. However, the growth rate of the domestic market in the past three years is obviously higher than the growth rate of the industry. This is an inevitable transformation process. Since the furniture industry paid too much attention to the export market before 2008, the domestic domestic market was not mature, the brands were scattered and the quality was uneven, and there was no furniture brand with national influence. The industry is less concentrated, and more are regional brands that have a certain influence in the segmentation field. If the industry concentration CR5 is increased to 10%, there will be a sales of 10 billion furniture brands.
4. Regional structure prediction
The industrial structure has changed greatly: the rise of the Sichuan Army has relied on its deep entanglement in the second and third-tier domestic demand markets to combine the modularization and industrialization capabilities of panel furniture with the energy of the independent point channel to expand the network to form a system competitiveness. Beijing Furniture relies on brand replacement capabilities in the Beijing market. In the end, Yuepai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Beijing sent four cents. The three forces confluence (furniture industry, real estate, government), the industrial strategic layout is still in major restructuring: the western industrial base (Chongzhou, 8 square kilometers), the northern industrial base (Xianghe), the eastern industrial base (Haian, 13 square kilometers) Central industrial base (Wuhan, Jingucheng, Qianjiang) and so on.
Industrial restructuring is being led by the new wave. Leading furniture manufacturers are deep integration of manufacturing and channel services through information technology and high technology. They are realizing organizational and management changes and laying the initial foundation for manufacturing to service transformation. This wave will further advance and spread in the next five years, and profoundly change the ability and appearance of Chinese furniture brand manufacturers. After a period of 20 years of precipitation, a group of manufacturing-born enterprises are becoming representative forces of models and brands, and become the backbone of the future restructuring of Chinese furniture.
5. Segment market forecast
Panel furniture panel furniture meets the development requirements of low-carbon economy under the crisis of environment, ecology, energy and resources. At the same time, its product characteristics of simplicity, individuality, fashion, easy assembly and disassembly meet the consumption concept of the new generation of consumer groups. In the future, the panel furniture market will become the main force in the furniture market. The general development trend of panel furniture is to develop economically, practically, and easily for industrial production, diversification of materials, common parts and standards, and the organization and management of production using the latest science and technology.
Judging from the current development of the comprehensive development of mahogany furniture, the market will have a trend of polarization. The shortage of resources brought about by fierce and fierce competition will prompt high-end enterprises to increase investment in design and craft production, improve the intrinsic value of products, locate high-end boutique collection type furniture, and maintain profit margins and industry advantages. Enterprises positioned in the low-end market will be able to transform and develop other relatively low-priced woods, which will be closer to practicality in product styling and enrich the variety of mahogany furniture on the market. At present, consumers' aesthetic vision is increasing, and consumer behavior is becoming more and more calm and rational. The survival space of those shoddy and shoddy enterprises will gradually decrease, and eventually will be eliminated by the market. After the elimination of the coarse and fine deposits, the sense of crisis will make the quality awareness deep into each enterprise, which is conducive to the overall healthy development of the industry.
Analysis of the development trend of China's furniture market in 2011-2013
(1) Product trends (1) Furniture matching highlights cultural taste
With the deepening of the concept of “light decoration, heavy decorationâ€, buying furniture is no longer a simple purchase of a set table, a set of beds, a sofa, but from the furniture to more cultural essence, creating a unique living room The cultural space, especially in the land of Xi'an, which conveys a strong cultural flavor. In recent years, the popularity of American furniture is the best illustration. It combines the American local customs and culture, or rough, luxurious, or appropriate, nostalgic is a major feature of American furniture. “Generally speaking, furniture with cultural charm can make family members feel a sense of belonging and charisma. Therefore, the owners who come to buy are mostly refreshed.†Wang Wei, general manager of Xi'an Home, said. In addition to American furniture, mahogany furniture has become the first choice of many decoration owners in recent years. The obvious nationality in the shape and crafts of mahogany furniture is the most attractive part for many collectors, and Xi'an, as a cultural ancient capital, has obvious advantages in the cultural identity and inheritance of traditional furniture.
(2) When the furniture industry enters the affordable housing era, small-sized furniture will become popular.
For the indicators of building 10 million sets of affordable housing in 2011 and 36 million sets of affordable housing in 5 years, most furniture people think it is a good thing. Furniture companies such as the left and right sofas, Fuyun Ideal Space, Peugeot Furniture, Yaobang, Jinfuya, Huawei, Gemma, etc. have launched or plan to introduce furniture for affordable housing and affordable housing. In the next two to five years, small-sized units such as commercial housing, affordable housing, affordable housing, and low-rent housing will continue to sell well. Therefore, Gemma Furniture is trying to create a cost-effective panel furniture that is very similar to IKEA but that is more durable than IKEA. The Hengli brand launched by Yaobang Furniture is also designed for affordable housing, products, pricing and style, all for affordable housing.
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